Recent developments in the Russo-Ukraine war have had a somewhat sobering effect on Ukraine’s short to mid-term prospects. Their counteroffensive of which so much was perhaps unfairly, expected has proved to be a bit of a damp squib, and the frontlines have barely shifted over the past few months.

Whilst all is far from lost, a new realism has crept in. It’s pretty clear that the Russians are not going to pack it in and go home, and it’s equally clear that the Ukrainians are finding it hard going in their attempts to break the enemy’s lines.

We have discussed the possible reasons for this often enough; Russian resilience and competence in defence; Ukrainian lack of experience and training in the necessary combined arms operations above company level; neither side able to impose and maintain air superiority; and a Ukrainian lack of arms and ammunition to enable them to break the deadlock.

This last one is a sore point. Zelensky has been asking for western armoured fighting vehicles, fighter aircraft, and long range precision missiles and artillery until he’s blue in the face. The West has responded in dribs and drabs; for example, the USA has donated only 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and yet they have thousands in storage, lying unused.

And now the Americans have put yet another kibosh on Zelensky getting what he so ardently desires. The US Senate has blocked a supplemental funding bill that included financial aid for Ukraine (as well as for Israel and Taiwan) plus provisions aimed at bolstering their border security. The vote, which fell mostly along party lines, increases the likelihood that Congress will fail to approve more funding for Ukraine before the end of the year, notwithstanding the White House having warned that Kyiv is desperately in need of more aid.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, Russia has been busy replenishing its arsenal in preparation for further battles next year. Ammunition production has been ramped up and older tanks have been brought out of storage, upgraded, and prepared for front line service. Fifty-years-old or not, a tank is a tank is a tank, and is a serious threat on the battlefields. And the Russians have lots of them despite losses to date.

We also know that North Korea has been shipping ammunition in large quantities and in the required calibres from the east. We also suspect that China has been doing the same, despite their public denials. And then there’s Iran, which has supplied Russia with its Shahed-136/-131 one-way-attack drones (OWA/UAVs) and allowed the Russians to set up manufacturing lines at home to make more.

As an aside, it does seem that the world is now dividing into two defined camps. On the one hand there is the USA and its NATO allies, plus Israel in the Middle East and its Indo-Pacific allies including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines among others.

On the other side there is Russia, Iran, North Korea, and very probably China, a new “Axis of Evil” if you like. Plus in South America there is Russia’s new best friend Venezuela under the de facto dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro threatening to annex part of neighbouring Guyana, in addition to the loose cannon that is Argentina under the soon-to-be leadership of eccentric, nay batty, president-elect Javier Milei.

All of which combined appears to be scarily reminiscent of Europe in the 1930s, with the rise of Hitler and Nazi Germany and of Italy and Mussolini, added to the recently established fascist regime of Franco in Spain. And Japan was rattling her sabre in the Pacific and threatening the dominance of the USA.

Could we be witnessing in plain sight the gearing up for another world conflict? Let’s hope not, because nobody wants to go down that path again, but it can happen by default as well as by design.

None of which is particularly helpful for Zelensky and Ukraine. Nobody wants to say it, but the Ukrainians are quite clearly fighting NATO’s proxy war against the clear and present danger that is a resurgent Russia under Putin. If Ukraine succumbs to the Russian onslaught, where next? Poland? The Baltic states?

If that were to happen then NATO would become directly engaged via Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and the resulting war would be terrible to behold. Better, surely, to ensure Putin is defeated comprehensively in Ukraine.

Once again, I can only reiterate that we need to give Zelensky the means to finish the job, and we need to do it now. Action this day!

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

 

 

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

• http://www.DefenceReview.UK
• @peoplemattertv
• @509298

A few days ago the eyes of the world were on the temporary ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of hostages and prisoners between Hamas and Israel. The cessation of fighting lasted seven days and some 108 Israelis and over 210 Palestinians have been released, with hundreds of trucks of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip daily.

Hostilities have recommenced, of course, but every sane observer will have been heartened by the Israeli/Hamas exchanges and hope that there may be more to come if the ceasefire can be reinitiated sometime in the future. But we have to be careful to fully understand what is going on here.

Under pressure from its main ally the USA and other international governments, the Israeli government and military compromised its successful operation in Gaza. When military action was halted it was well on its way to crushing Hamas. It temporarily relented to enable the release of its citizens held by the terrorists, which is of immense importance to the Israeli public; its politicians have reacted accordingly, its military leaders will have had to acquiesce.

Hamas, on the other hand, used the ceasefire and the protracted exchange to try to escape from the whirlwind they sowed on October 7. I suspect that its leadership did not expect the attacks to be so successful, nor that Hamas terrorists would be followed by other groups and individuals who have vented their anger on Israeli civilians. But they know that, in the final analysis, there will be no escape for them. The die is cast, and it was cast by them.

Both sides are trying to manipulate the exchanges to their advantage. To date, only ‘lower value’ (in political terms, not human terms) assets have been released; women and children mainly by Hamas, and mostly stone-throwing children and other assorted ne’er-do-wells by Israel.

‘Higher value’ individuals, like convicted Hamas terrorists and Israeli military personnel alike, are probably being retained until the later stages when the stakes will be higher. Hamas is also trying to leverage the arrangements to its advantage by splitting families, for example releasing children but not their mothers. This is cruelty writ large and needs to be seen as such.

The picture is further complicated by the fact that Hamas does not itself hold all the Israeli hostages. Some are held by other factions and Hamas will not necessarily know by whom or where they are located. Nor do the Israelis know exactly how many of the hostages are in fact still alive. Hope springs eternal, of course, but there is every chance they are being strung along by Hamas.

It is also sadly likely that Hamas will not be quick to release hostages who suffered more violent assault during and after the attacks for fear of the stories they might tell and the injuries they might bear. Such evidence would only inflame emotions even further and strengthen Israel’s resolve.

At some point the cost/benefit analysis, which both sides will be considering and which is currently probably neutral, will inevitably turn negative, and sadly not all hostages may have been released or rescued when that comes to pass. There is no knowing when this might happen, but as Hamas expends its political capital, as it were, that time must be getting closer.

Israel has already resumed its military operation to eliminate Hamas, and will continue with it until the terrorists and their leadership are all eradicated or the weight of world opinion forces them to stop. Its future actions will not be unrestricted, however. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the crisis.

In his statement afterwards Blinken “reaffirmed the US’s support for ‘Israel’s right to protect itself from terrorist violence’ while complying with international humanitarian law”. But he also “stressed the imperative of accounting for humanitarian and civilian protection needs in southern Gaza before any military operations there.” Israel has not been given carte blanche.

Whatever transpires, Israel is in it for the long haul. The existence of Hamas can no longer be tolerated.

Those familiar with the reaction to the terrorist attacks against Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics will know that it took Mossad 20 years to track down and eliminate the perpetrators.

Expect the same again.

 

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

 

 

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

• http://www.DefenceReview.UK
• @peoplemattertv
• @509298

The eyes of the world have been on the temporary ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of hostages and prisoners between Hamas and Israel. At the time of writing, the cessation of hostilities has lasted seven days and some 102 Israelis and 210 Palestinians have been released, with around 220 trucks of humanitarian aid now entering the Gaza Strip daily.

Every sane observer will be heartened by the Israeli/Hamas exchanges so far and hope that there may be more to come if the ceasefire can be further extended. But we have to be careful to fully understand what is going on here.

 

Under pressure from its main ally the USA and other international governments, the Israeli government and military has compromised its successful operation in Gaza. When military action was halted it was well on its way to crushing Hamas. It has temporarily relented to enable the release of its citizens held by the terrorists, which is of immense importance to the Israeli public; its politicians have reacted accordingly, its military leaders will have had to acquiesce.

Hamas, on the other hand, is using the ceasefire and the protracted exchange to try to escape from the whirlwind they sowed on 7 October. I suspect that its leadership did not expect the attacks to be so successful, nor that Hamas terrorists would be followed by other groups and individuals who have vented their anger on Israeli civilians. But they know that, in the final analysis, there will be no escape for them. The die is cast, and it was cast by them.

Both sides are trying to manipulate the exchanges to their advantage. To date, only ‘lower value’ (in political terms, not human terms) assets have been released; women and children mainly by Hamas, and mostly stone-throwing children and other assorted ne’er-do-wells by Israel.

‘Higher value’ individuals, like convicted Hamas terrorists and Israeli military personnel alike, are probably being retained until the later stages when the stakes will be higher. Hamas is also trying to leverage the arrangements to its advantage by splitting families, for example releasing children but not their mothers. This is cruelty writ large and needs to be seen as such.

The picture is further complicated by the fact that Hamas does not itself hold all the Israeli hostages. Some are held by other factions and Hamas will not necessarily know by whom or where they are located. Nor do the Israelis know exactly how many of the hostages are in fact still alive. Hope springs eternal, of course, but there is every chance they are being strung along by Hamas.

It is also sadly likely that Hamas will not be quick to release hostages who suffered more violent assault during and after the attacks for fear of the stories they might tell and the injuries they might bear. Such evidence  would only inflame emotions even further and strengthen Israel’s resolve.

At some point the cost/benefit analysis, which both sides will be considering and which is currently in the positive, will inevitably turn negative, and sadly not all hostages may have been released or rescued when that comes to pass. There is no knowing when this might happen, but as Hamas expends its political capital, as it were, that time must be getting closer.

Israel is then likely to resume its military operation to eliminate Hamas, and will continue with it until the terrorists and their leadership are all eradicated or the weight of world opinion forces them to stop. Its future actions will not be unrestricted, however. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the crisis.

In his statement afterwards Blinken “reaffirmed the US’s support for ‘Israel’s right to protect itself from terrorist violence’ while complying with international humanitarian law”. But he also “stressed the imperative of accounting for humanitarian and civilian protection needs in southern Gaza before any military operations there.” Israel has not been given carte blanche.

Whatever transpires, Israel is in it for the long haul. The existence of Hamas can no longer be tolerated. Those familiar with the reaction to the terrorists attacks against Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics will know that it took Mossad 20 years to track down and eliminate the perpetrators.

Expect the same again.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

 

 

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

• http://www.DefenceReview.UK
• @peoplemattertv
• @509298