China–Taiwan Stand-Off

A weekly guide to the breaking news for defence of the UK and abroad.

w/c 8th August 2022

 

What are we to make of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and the subsequent rumpus?  Eighty-two year old Pelosi was the first senior representative of the US administration to visit Taiwan over the last twenty-five years and she made the trip in the face of fierce opposition from the Chinese government and even against the expressed wishes of President Biden. Clearly nobody tells her what to do!

The US government’s policy towards China has often been described as one of strategic ambiguity; it officially recognises the Chinese government under President Xi Jinping whilst supporting Taiwan militarily and economically. Others have characterised its policy as one of strategic confusion, and there was much rowing back by White House officials after their Presidents assertion on three separate occasions that if China attempted to invade Taiwan the USA would intervene.

Taiwan is important internationally because it manufacture’s something like eighty per cent of the world’s computer chips. The thought of China gaining control of such a near monopoly does not bear thinking about. It is also of more immediate importance to the US and its allies in the region – _ Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia to name but a few – because it’s at the centre of the inner ring of island nations which is seen to curtail China’s expansionist ambitions.

The Chinese government’s reaction to Speaker Pelosi’s visit has been like that of a baby having a tantrum and throwing all of its toys out of its pram. Military exclusion zones have been declared just off Taiwan, ballistic missiles have been fired into the sea near Taiwan and Japan, naval vessels have patrolled and fighter jets have carried out practice attacks. And, although many commentators are near hysterical in their doomsday predictions, the Taiwanese themselves seem non-plussed.

The truth of the matter is that even for the mighty Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA), the two million-strong military wing of the Chinese Communist Party, launching an assault across the eighty mile wide Taiwan Strait that separates the island from mainland China is fraught with difficulties and danger. The PLA has neither the doctrine, training, or experience of such an operation, which in the face of predictably fierce Taiwanese resistance would make D Day look like a paddle along the shoreline.

China has never governed Taiwan, which it regards as a wayward province which needs to be brought back into the fold, in modern times. The Taiwanese for their part have no wish to go down the route of Hong Kong and be subsumed by Communist China. This festering sore of a stand-off will persist for some time yet

 

Death of Ayman al-Zawahiri

A weekly guide to the breaking news for defence of the UK and abroad.

w/c 8th August 2022

 

 

One should never rejoice in the demise of a fellow human being but it’s difficult not to agree that Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of al’Quaeda, got what was coming to him. The long-serving former second in command to Usama bin Laden met his maker when two US Hellfire missiles slammed into his balcony in Kabul where he was taking the early morning air and now he is no more. Those who live by the sword tend to die by the sword, and few tears will be shed.

That he was a baddy there is no doubt. As second-in-command to Usama bin Laden his fingerprints were all over some infamous terrorist attacks including the suicide boat attack on the American destroyer USS Cole in October 2000 while she was in harbour at Aden. Seventeen US sailors were killed and another thirty-seven injured. And, of course, he was involved in the planning for 9/11.

It took ten years to track down and eliminate bin Laden and eleven years to do the same with al-Zawahiri. Both men were careful in their movements and stayed away from satellite phones and internet communications which might have given away their whereabouts. And yet the US tracked both of them down eventually. In bin Laden’s case they followed the courier he used to deliver messages to his followers back to his lair in Abbottabad in Pakistan. Al-Zawahiri was spotted by agents on the ground in Kabul, or so it seems.

What does this tell us? Well, first, that being an international terrorist militates against living a long and happy life. Most are either killed or captured in the fullness of time, and it tends to be a short career. But, more importantly perhaps, it tells us that there are few hiding places and that the long arm of international justice will get them in the end. It’s not a career path that I would recommend.

Crawford’s International Defence Review w/c 8th August 2022

Death of Ayman al-Zawahiri

 One should never rejoice in the demise of a fellow human being but it’s difficult not to agree that Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of al’Quaeda, got what was coming to him. The long-serving former second in command to Usama bin Laden met his maker when two US Hellfire missiles slammed into his balcony in Kabul where he was taking the early morning air and now he is no more. Those who live by the sword tend to die by the sword, and few tears will be shed.

What does this tell us? Well, first, that being an international terrorist militates against living a long and happy life. Most are either killed or captured in the fullness of time, and it tends to be a short career. But, more importantly perhaps, it tells us that there are few hiding places and that the long arm of international justice will get them in the end. It’s not a career path that I would recommend.

China–Taiwan Stand-Off

Eighty-two year old Pelosi was the first senior representative of the US administration to visit Taiwan over the last twenty-five years and she made the trip in the face of fierce opposition from the Chinese government and even against the expressed wishes of President Biden.  Taiwan is important internationally because it manufacture’s something like eighty per cent of the world’s computer chips. It is also of  importance to the US and its allies in the region – _ Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia because it’s at the centre of the inner ring of island nations which is seen to curtail China’s expansionist ambitions.

The US government’s policy towards China has often been described as one of strategic ambiguity; it officially recognises the Chinese government under President Xi Jinping whilst supporting Taiwan militarily and economically. Military exclusion zones have been declared just off Taiwan, ballistic missiles have been fired into the sea near Taiwan and Japan, naval vessels have patrolled and fighter jets have carried out practice attacks.  This festering sore of a stand-off will persist for some time yet

Gaza

Israeli forces killed the leader of the militant Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Khaled Monsour, in an air strike on the refugee camp in Rafah in southern Gaza. This was followed by the arrest and detention of dozens of PIJ members by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). PIJ retaliated by launching a barrage of an estimated 200 plus rockets and mortar rounds from the Gaza Strip into Israel. And yet, there was no action taken against Hamas which has been deemed a terrorist organisation by the USA, UK, EU, and various other governments around the world. Hamas encouraged the PIJ to participate in the Egyptian-brokered ceasefire which now seems to have brought peace to the region. But until Israel and the various Palestinian factions agree to a compromise solution to the conflict between them, the risk of further outbreaks of fighting looms large

Crawford’s International Defence Review w/e 7th August 2022

Kosovo – Serbia Increased Tensions

There were increased tensions on the Serbia – Kosovo border this week when the Kosovan government attempted again to order the 50,000 Serbians living there to switch from using Serbian car number plates to Kosovan ones along with other documentation. This led to an immediate reaction from the ethnic Serbians, with road blocks set up on two cross-border roads and shots fired, although nobody was hurt. Eventually NATO intervened, but some have suggested that Russia was behind this current spate of border troubles, agitating to draw NATO attention away from the Ukraine conflict,

The Ajax Scandal

The MoD awarded a £5.5 billion contract to provide some 589 variants of the Ajax vehicle to replace the UK’s obsolete reconnaissance armoured and support vehicles. This was over ten years ago, and despite the expenditure of – so far – £3.2 billion of the agreed sum the British army has not taken delivery of any which can be operated safely.  Westminster’s Public Accounts Committee has now lost patience with the project and has set a deadline of December 2022 for a decision one way or another on the vehicle’s viability.

Beards in the British Army

A recurring theme on British army social media channels is the debate about whether soldiers should be allowed to grow beards. Maybe the Army could lighten up a little bit when it comes to facial hair? In the final analysis, faced with the choice between a trendy beard and avoiding certain death from a chemical attack most folk would choose the latter, would they not? So perhaps beards in peacetime and clean-shaven in wartime might be the way to go.