Defence Newsletter February 2023

 

w/c 13th February 2023

‘Planes For Ukraine

Air superiority is a prerequisite for successful operations by manoeuvring armoured formations; without it they are very vulnerable to attack from above. So to go on the offensive they need better, more modern aircraft that their enemy, and they need them quickly and in numbers.

Why the USA is reluctant to countenance its issue to Ukraine is beyond me, for it must already be well-known to Russia and it is no longer the NATO aircraft of choice anyway, having been largely superseded by more modern and sophisticated aircraft. And as for fear of escalation, well, the war is pretty escalated already, isn’t it?

Ukraine Spring Offensives

Despite my earlier predictions that the Ukrainians might be the first out of the traps, it now looks as if the Russians may well attack first. In fact according to some observers they have started already with an upsurge of attacks in the Donbas. It may be that instead of a sudden explosion in offensive operations their Spring offensives will be more of a ramping up of operations that have been underway for some time.

That’s the primary reason why Zelensky’s tour of European capitals took place last week. His pleas for additional long range precision artillery and missile systems, plus Ukraine’s need for modern fast jet fighter aircraft, is precisely so they can contemplate taking the offensive against their invaders. Without the means to achieve at least local air superiority their task becomes much more difficult.

Neunundneunzig Luftballons

The discovery of a high-flying Chinese observation balloon over the USA caused a few red faces in Washington last week. Eventually it was shot down by a F-22 Raptor fighter into the Atlantic off the coast of Carolina, where recovery operations are underway, but to get there it obviously transited across the whole of the continental USA.

What’s going on here? Well, either the appropriate authorities in the USA, Canada, and elsewhere have hitherto been unaware of these transgressions, which would be worrying, or that they have known all along but have allowed them to continue for some other purposes. Perhaps we will find out which it is in due course.

Continue reading “Defence Newsletter February 2023”

Neunundneunzig Luftballons

 

The discovery of a high-flying Chinese observation balloon over the USA caused a few red faces in Washington last week. Eventually it was shot down by a F-22 Raptor fighter into the Atlantic off the coast of Carolina, where recovery operations are underway, but to get there it obviously transited across the whole of the continental USA.

US embarrassment increased exponentially when it was reported that this was hardly the first time this had happened, with at least three other incursions having taken place under the previous administration. At the time President Trump seems to have taken no action.

More recently further interceptions of unauthorised objects have taken place over Alaska and now a similar interception over Canada. We also learned that a similar balloon to the one shot down may also have been operation over Latin America.

What’s going on here? Well, either the appropriate authorities in the USA, Canada, and elsewhere have hitherto been unaware of these transgressions, which would be worrying, or that they have known all along but have allowed them to continue for some other purposes. Perhaps we will find out which it is in due course.

The flurry of excitement over these incidents has reminded me, once again, of the prescience of the German one-hit-wonder band Nena and their hit single “Neunundneunzig Luftballons” (Ninety-Nine Balloons) back in 1983. Sample lyrics:

“99 red balloons
Floating in the summer sky
Panic bells, it’s red alert
There’s something here from somewhere else
The war machine springs to life
Opens up one eager eye
Focusing it on the sky
The 99 red balloons go by”

Dismissed as harmless anti-war nonsense back in the day, perhaps it has become a song relevant to current times forty years later?

Tank CommanderLt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

Ukraine Spring Offensives

 

Conversations buzz around the prospect of renewed fighting in Ukraine in the next few weeks, or even days. With both sides having had the opportunity to – to a certain extent anyway – recover, regroup, and re-equip, there is an awful expectancy around when the next major bout of fighting might start, and indeed where.

Despite my earlier predictions that the Ukrainians might be the first out of the traps, it now looks as if the Russians may well attack first. In fact according to some observers they have started already with an upsurge of attacks in the Donbas. It may be that instead of a sudden explosion in offensive operations their Spring offensives will be more of a ramping up of operations that have been underway for some time.

As for the Ukrainian armed forces, well, they are probably sufficiently strong to be able to resist any Russian assaults without giving up too much territory, but only if the west continues its present levels of financial and military support. But in my estimation they probably don’t have the wherewithal – yet – to go on the offensive themselves, not at any scale anyway.

That’s the primary reason why Zelensky’s tour of European capitals took place last week. His pleas for additional long range precision artillery and missile systems, plus Ukraine’s need for modern fast jet fighter aircraft, is precisely so they can contemplate taking the offensive against their invaders. Without the means to achieve at least local air superiority their task becomes much more difficult.

Whether the west will respond positively and ante up the weaponry remains to be seen. A few weeks back we had the same reluctance to supply main battle tanks to the UkrAF and now the floodgates have opened. Perhaps the same will happen over the supply of aircraft?

Tank CommanderLt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

‘Planes For Ukraine

 

The big news over the past few days has centred on President Zelensky’s visit to the UK. Although clearly weeks if not months in the planning, the general public only learned of it just before it took place.

Zelensky is a bit of a celebrity in the UK these days and his visit had all the aspects of a proper state visit minus the pomp and ceremony; met by Rishi Sunak on landing, addressing both Houses of Parliament in Westminster Hall, an audience with King Charles, and then down to Dorset, again accompanied by the PM, to visit Ukrainian troops in training. It’s clear he was a very welcome guest.

His purpose, I think, was twofold; first to tell the British public and politicians how much Ukraine appreciated their support in the war to date, and second to ask them that it should continue and not fall victim to war-weariness and focus shifting to other issues. In this I think, for the time being at least, that he was successful.

A major theme in his visit was his request for modern fast jet fighters from the west. It is obvious to me and other commentators that without them it will be very difficult for the UkrAF to transition from mainly defensive operations to the offensive ones required to clear the Russians from their land.

Air superiority is a prerequisite for successful operations by manoeuvring armoured formations; without it they are very vulnerable to attack from above. So to go on the offensive they need better, more modern aircraft that their enemy, and they need them quickly and in numbers.

As I have written too many times before, the obvious candidate is the US F-16 Fighting Falcon. Although first introduced into service in the 1970s, it has been continuously upgraded since and is probably superior in almost all aspects to current Russian models, with the exception of their most modern ones. It has also been widely adopted by European nations, is available in quantity, and is altogether good enough for the purpose.

Why the USA is reluctant to countenance its issue to Ukraine is beyond me, for it must already be well-known to Russia and it is no longer the NATO aircraft of choice anyway, having been largely superseded by more modern and sophisticated aircraft. And as for fear of escalation, well, the war is pretty escalated already, isn’t it?

Tank CommanderLt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now