Ukraine or Russia? Whoever controls Crimea will ultimately prevail

Most military observers agree that in terms of the current Russo-Ukraine war the critical ground, the key terrain if you like, is Crimea. He who controls Crimea controls the Black Sea, essentially, plus the entrance to the Sea of Azov. It is the strategic main prize.

Which explains why it has been fought over so many times throughout history, most famously during the Crimean War of 1853-56 and also during the First and Second World Wards last century.

What might be the future for Crimea is a question recently asked by classicist academic Frederick Lauritzen in a short online blog in which he suggests that either a demilitarised zone (DMZ) or NATO outpost might be the options. This is worth further exploration.

We should perhaps consider the basic stuff and add a couple of other possibilities. The first option is, obviously, a continuation of the current status quo. The Russians, having illegally annexed the peninsula in 2014, remain in occupation despite Ukraine’s best efforts to dispel them.

This would be a victory for Putin and a national disappointment for Zelensky and Ukraine. Despite the demonstrated vulnerabilities of Russian bases, their Black Sea Fleet, and the Kerch Bridge, they would still control much of the Black Sea and be able to interdict trade routes at their whim. Bad news for Ukraine and NATO.
The second scenario is that Ukraine successfully recaptures Crimea and brings it back into the fold. This is not beyond the bounds of possibility, because the combination of Ukrainian military guile and western weaponry has already made Russia’s hold on the peninsula much more tenuous.

In particular, the combination of Ukrainian dominance from the skies and seas, plus the possible recapture of the northern shores of the Sea of Azov around Mariupol, would surely make the Russian position in Crimea untenable. But it’s a big ask of the UkrAF and there’s no certainty of this outcome.

Now we turn to Lauritzen’s two further suggestions. The first of these is that Crimea could become a demilitarized zone. This is presumably predicated upon there being no decisive military outcome to the current war and there being a negotiated peace agreement. Neither side would probably give up their claim to the peninsula but would compromise here to help bring the war to an end.

Quite how this demilitarized zone would be policed or regulated is a matter for conjecture, but the United Nations controls several such zones around the world – the Green Line Cyprus being one example – and would seem to be the obvious candidate, but would they want to take yet another such commitment on? There are other possible options of course, the EU for example, but that seems less likely.

The other option discussed is that Crimea should become a NATO outpost. This would rely on Ukraine being victorious in reoccupying it and also regaining access to the northern shores of the Sea of Azov, including the port city of Mariupol, presently under the occupation of the Russian invaders, and also, one presumes, of Ukraine joining NATO.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

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