Israel has renewed air and land strikes on Gaza, with US approval, over the past few days. Having completed Phase 1 of the ceasefire agreement after a fashion, it has proved impossible for the Israelis and Hamas to agree on a basis that satisfies both sides, and the Israeli government’s patience has run out – quite understandably.
The purpose of their renewed offensive into Gaza is to degrade Hamas even further and render the terrorist organisation ineffective. No doubt some of the recently released Palestinian prisoners freed under Phase 1 will now fall to Israel guns, but live by the sword, die by the sword as they say.
The additional damage to an already devastated Gaze – 70% of buildings estimated to be affected to some extent already – will no doubt be extensive. Trump may well end up realising his dream of the “Riviera of the Middle East”, if only because rebuilding will more or less have to start from scratch.
How the Palestinian inhabitants will be accommodated during the rebuilding phase is another area of dispute; Trump wants them to be deported to Jordan and Egypt (whose governments have already rejected the idea) whilst the Arab states have put forward a plan to re-house them in temporary accommodation within the strip, which has in turn been rejected by Israel and the USA.
In parallel to the Gaza conundrum, the USA has recently launched a series of attacks on the Houthi rebels in Yemen who have been seeking to disrupt naval and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. In a further development, Trump has warned Iran to stop arming the Houthis “or else”, threatening direct action against Iran and its interests.
How will these situations develop? Well, in the short to medium term Hamas will be reduced to a shadow of its former self, and the Houthis will be regarded to the point where they no longer represent a significant threat.
In the longer term I would predict that Israel will attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, with US support, as it has done in the past. Putin, Tehran’s ally, will howl in protest but in the end be unable to do anything about it.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
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