As many of us predicted, the Alaska and Washington DC meetings last week between Trump/Putin and Trump/Zelensky/European leaders have actually achieved very little, but starting the conversations is at least progress of a sort, I suppose.
They have shown once again that Trump is unpredictable and unreliable and blows with the wind. He tends to agree with the last person he has spoken to and is desperate for a “win” and his goal of being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Thus, his position shifts between seeming to support Putin and then swings towards the Ukrainian and European perspective.
At the other end of the spectrum, it’s clear that Putin isn’t really interested in peace, and the main reason he was vehemently against a ceasefire is that he wants to prolong the war as long as possible. Peace negotiations can take years, which suits his purpose better; the longer the war can be prolonged, the more Ukrainian territory he hopes to grab.
In between these two, President Zelensky of Ukraine is caught between a rock and a hard place; he needs to keep the USA on side, but he cannot accept giving up Ukrainian territory in exchange for peace and security guarantees (see the 1994 treaty when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal for such guarantees, which were broken). In any case, it’s against Ukraine’s constitution to do so, as we have been told.
Europe is well aware that Trump may withdraw military support for Ukraine – and possibly Europe – at some point, but collectively it does not have the military heft – anti-ballistic missile defence, satellite surveillance, etc, etc – to replace the US, and won’t have for some years. European states are now scrambling to build up their military capabilities again, but it’s not going to happen overnight.
Ukraine really does need to join NATO for its future security but Trump seems to have ruled it out, preferring a sort of “Article 5 Lite” arrangement without specifying what that might be and how it might work. The big question is now whether the USA would actually honour its guarantees and become actively involved if Putin reneged and attacked again. It’s another aspect of the “would America sacrifice Washington if Estonia is attacked?” question, which has never been satisfactorily answered.
Against this sorry background, it looks like the Russo-Ukraine war will rumble on for a while yet. There is no light at the end of the tunnel and won’t be for months if not years.
And with JD Vance positioning himself as Trump’s successor, it will only get worse. He’s even more anti-Europe than Trump.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
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