Trump’s blunt truth on Chagos exposes a dangerous British folly

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Donald Trump is rarely a model of diplomatic restraint. Yet every so often his instinctive bluntness cuts through layers of official obfuscation. His intervention on the proposed handover of sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius is one such moment.

Calling the plan an act of “great stupidity”, Trump has done what too few in Westminster have been prepared to do: state plainly that this deal makes no strategic sense. The United Kingdom proposes to give up sovereignty over territory that has been British for more than two centuries, home to Diego Garcia, a cornerstone of Western security in the Indo-Pacific, in return for the dubious comfort of leasing back what we already own.

Donald Trump may not choose his words carefully, but his underlying point is unanswerable. Diego Garcia hosts a vital United States military base, integral to NATO security and to stability in a region becoming ever more contested. Handing sovereignty to Mauritius while hoping that long-term access remains untouched is not statesmanship; it is wishful thinking dressed up as diplomacy.

The most striking hypocrisy lies in the Government’s justification for the deal. Ministers have repeatedly suggested that the only reason for pressing ahead was that it was wanted by Washington. That fig leaf was offered to those of us who asked why Britain was rushing to give away strategically vital territory for, apparently, no compelling reason. Trump’s intervention exposes that argument as hollow. The United States’ interest in Diego Garcia has not disappeared. It has been restated, loudly.

If Sir Keir Starmer was looking for a way off the hook, this is it. He can hardly continue to argue that American pressure demands the deal when the American president-elect is publicly condemning it. This is the perfect opportunity to pause, reconsider, and withdraw from an arrangement that commands little support and carries considerable risk.

There are deeper problems that cannot be wished away. Governments speak warmly of self-determination, yet the Chagossian people have never been properly consulted on this transfer. Their voices are invoked selectively, but not genuinely heard. It is particularly jarring to hear the same political class champion self-determination when discussing Greenland, while denying it in practice to the Chagossians themselves.

Then there is the cost. Each time the deal is discussed, the price tag appears to rise. We hear of compensation, development packages and long-term lease payments, all to secure access to territory we already possess. At a time of acute fiscal pressure, it is extraordinary that billions may be committed to solve a problem we have largely invented.

Environmental protection has been conspicuously sidelined. The marine environment around the Chagos Islands is among the most precious and unspoilt on the planet. British stewardship has, to date, provided meaningful protection. There is no credible guarantee that this will continue under Mauritian sovereignty. Warm words are no substitute for enforceable safeguards, and none are evident.

Security concerns multiply on closer inspection. Mauritius is party to international treaties that could constrain the basing of nuclear assets on Diego Garcia. Even the possibility of legal ambiguity should give pause. Deterrence depends on certainty. Introducing doubt into one of the West’s most important military facilities is reckless.

What is perhaps most damning is the absence of public or political enthusiasm for the handover. There is little evidence of popular support in the United Kingdom. Parliament has not been meaningfully engaged. Yet in its manifesto the Labour Party pledged to protect Britain’s Overseas Territories. It is hard to reconcile that promise with a policy that does the opposite.

As a member and adviser to Friends of the British Overseas Territories, I am acutely aware that this debate goes far beyond Chagos alone. The United Kingdom has 14 Overseas Territories. To the people of those territories, British sovereignty is not a bargaining chip. It is a guarantee of security, identity and protection.

The United Kingdom has a moral duty to uphold that guarantee. Undermining it in one case weakens confidence in all the others.

Trump may be all over the place on many issues. On this one, however, he has grasped the essentials. The Chagos deal is strategically unsound, morally confused, environmentally careless and politically unnecessary.

Sometimes it takes an outsider to say what should already be obvious. The real question now is whether the British Government is prepared to listen.