Multiple sources are now reporting that the war in Ukraine is about to enter a new phase. After the Russian attempts on Kyiv and Kharkiv, which were both repulsed, their renewed focus on the Donbas region is now grinding to a halt. Despite their superiority in men and particularly in artillery, the Russians are now making little progress and continue to suffer heavy losses.
We now have an “operational pause” whilst both sides catch their breath. However, speculation is mounting that Ukraine may be on the cusp of mounting a strategic counter-offensive in the south with the aim of retaking the Kherson oblast and threatening the Russian occupation of Crimea, which they annexed in 2014.
I suggested this was a likely Ukrainian strategy when I spoke to CNN back in March and it seems my prediction may have been accurate. Much depends on whether the Ukrainian army has sufficient supplies of modern weapons and trained troops to attempt such an undertaking. Should they succeed it may well bring the northern part of Crimea within range of Ukrainian weaponry.
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