- Ukraine is winning & Russia is losing.
- Ukrainian army on the offensive in Donbas Kherson in the south
- whole of the Kharkiv Oblast recovered
- Russian forces lose 00s of aircraft & helicopters, 000s of tanks & fighting vehicles, & 00000s of soldiers
- Russians abandon Kherson or being trapped & forced to surrender
Russia’s advances into Ukraine stuttered to a halt in the face of unexpectedly ferocious resistance by defenders bolstered by weapons and training provided by the west. To date, the Ukrainian armed forces have been supplied with enough weaponry and materiel to ensure they do not lose; now that support needs to continue and be multiplied so that they can win. But now we see the Ukrainian army taking the initiative in both the Donbas and around Kherson in the south, going over to the offensive in both areas over the past couple of weeks.
In Donbas the Ukrainian advances have been spectacular, and it now appears that the whole of the Kharkiv Oblast is back in their hands, including the important logistics and communications hubs of Kupyansk and Izium. In the south around Kherson progress has been slower, but there is now a very real possibility that the Russians will either have to abandon Kherson city or risk being trapped there and forces to surrender.
The Russian forces are in dire straits. It’s notoriously difficult to get accurate figures for casualties in this war, as neither side wants to give away its secrets, but a conservative estimate might put Russian losses to date at around hundreds of aircraft and helicopters, thousands of tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, and tens of thousands of soldiers. It may be that Ukrainian losses are just as heavy in proportion, if not in absolute numbers.
It is clear, however, that at this moment Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing. No doubt there will be other turns and twists in the road ahead but there is a real feeling of optimism that Ukraine will prevail and expel the Russian invaders. Whether this extends to the previously occupied areas of the Donbas and Crimea itself remains to be seen.