When Vladimir Putin launched his planned three-day “special military operation” against Ukraine three years ago he expected a speedy outcome and an easy victory.
His plan, in so far as we can interpret it from afar, was to roll his troops into Kyiv, capture or kill President Zelensky and his government, and replace them with a puppet government in thrall to Moscow.
He envisaged a mainly peaceful takeover in the face of little resistance. How wrong he was!
Putin’s grand strategy proved to be a complete and utter failure, and his operation has since morphed into a major war which is still raging today. That this is so speaks of disastrous Russian intelligence failures followed by hopelessly incompetent military operations thereafter.
Above all else, Putin and his generals completely misunderstood the Ukrainian people’s resolve, grit, and determination to resist. After initial gains, the Russians were pushed back with a bloody nose all along the front line, holding on to a fraction of what they captured in the beginning. The Russian armed forces were unable to sustain their offensive in the face of dogged resistance.
The conflict has then settled into a grinding positional struggle akin to the conditions last seen in Europe in the Great War of 1914-18.
In another grand failure, Putin completely underestimated Zelensky as a wartime leader and his ability to rally the Ukrainian people to defend against the invaders.
To be fair, Zelensky seemed on the face of it to be an unlikely individual to lead Ukraine’s struggle. A political outsider, he had previously been a comedian and television personality before standing in the 2019 presidential election. He won with 73.23 % of the vote in the second round, defeating his rival Poroshenko in the biggest landslide in the history of Ukrainian presidential elections.
Initially dismissed by many as a freak result, he has proved to be a doughty fighter in Ukraine’s time of crisis. Cometh the hour, cometh the man as they say. And Zelensky was, and is, that man.
And now he has a new crisis to deal with, as Donald Trump’s US administration rows back on US support for Ukraine and attempts to introduce a transactional and conditional aspect to the relationship – arms in return for Ukrainian mineral resources at rates favourable to the USA.
Zelensky has resisted this bribery or blackmail, call it what you will, so far. And rightly so, because Trump administration’s current position is all over the place, often contradictory, and has the whiff of policy being made on the hoof. Perhaps it should be trated with caution until something sensible and concrete emerges.
In the meantime stalemate in the war continues because both sides have begun to run out of manpower, resources, and ideas. Russia has not won, despite territorial gains, and Ukraine has not lost as it still stands as an independent sovereign state. Bruised and battered, yes, but far from defeated.
What seems increasingly clear is that the West needs to stand up to Putin, start playing hardball, and call his many bluffs. And Ukraine absolutely must join NATO at the earliest opportunity to guarantee its future security against future Russian attacks.
Peace, when and if it comes, will need compromise on all sides, and there’s no sign of that happening yet.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now
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