The Orange Curtain

The world looked on aghast at the extraordinary debacle earlier this week in which Donald Trump and his support act JD Vance berated Ukraine’s President Zelensky on live television. It made for a most unedifying spectacle.

The aftershocks are still reverberating around the globe, but suffice to say it was not a good look either for the USA or its NATO allies in the face of Russian aggression in eastern Europe.

Despite what various right wing American commentators have said since then about the USA withdrawing altogether from NATO – a recurring but so far empty threat from successive Trump administrations – I still think it unlikely.

But undoubtedly we are seeing a divergence in opinion and approach between Washington and the capitals of Europe.

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, we could perhaps say that “an orange curtain has descended across the Atlantic”.  To be absolutely fair, it is undoubtedly true that European NATO allies have been riding on the coat-tails of the USA for too long, and Trump’s irritation is justified. Now the various countries are scrambling to up their annual defence spend to the NATO minimum of 2% and beyond. Indeed, Poland, which is on the front line with Russia, is now committing in excess of 4%.

Be that as it may, in the immediate aftermath of the bad-tempered meeting in the White House, European leaders have attended a hastily convened meeting in London under Sir Keir Starmer’s chairmanship to try to decide how they will react to Trump’s unhelpful approach and what they should do about it.

At the conclusion of the meeting the British Prime Minister said that the leaders had agreed on four things; to keep military aid flowing into Ukraine, to make sure the Kyiv government is present at any peace talks that might take place, to deter any future Russian of Ukraine, and to form a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace there.

In addition to Zelensky taking part in the London meeting, he was then greeted by King Charles at Sandringham in a very public statement of the UK’s support and in stark contrast to his treatment in Washington a few days earlier.

So, what happens now? The plan seems to be that the UK and France will go back with a plan which will both be acceptable to Trump and persuade him to continue with US military support as backup, albeit probably in a reduced role.

If the Americans agree then Europe has to get its act together, which is unlikely to be straightforward. All states have different national agendas even if they do try to pull in the same direction. Command by committee is not the best way to conduct any military or indeed diplomatic campaign.

If, on the other hand, and in what is probably the worst case scenario, America refuses to play ball and withdraws its support from in NATO in totality or in part, then the European states will need to set up an alternative structure to progress what they seek to achieve.

This will call for everyone’s cooperation and compromise, and the very finest diplomatic and political skills from all parties.  There’s a way to go yet I’m afraid.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

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