Alaska Talks Bound To Fail

           

What hopes do we have for the outcome of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin being held in Anchorage in Alaska this Friday (15^th August)?

Short answer; not many. Purportedly arranged to seek an end to the Russo-Ukraine War, now well into its fourth year, there are too many problems and disputes to be overcome for anyone to have much optimism.

Trump famously said that he could end the war in 24 hours when he took office for his second term, but that proved to be – as everyone expected – just another of his boastful and vainglorious statements aimed at domestic and foreign audiences. He hasn’t come anywhere close to doing so despite numerous meetings between the involved parties.

So he needs a win to restore his credibility, and soon. Plus being able to claim that he has brought peace to eastern Europe might help on the way to that Nobel Peace Prize that he so clearly covets.

For Putin, the very fact that he is once more in direct conversations with a US President is a win in its own right. To him it will be seen, in Russia at least, as a sign that after years of being the pariah of international politics he has brought his country back into the fold of semi-respectability.

Plus Putin is a wily, unprincipled old fox – even more so than the current US President – and he will run rings round Trump in any serious negotiations that take place.

Prospects of any lasting peace in Ukraine face some serious, currently insurmountable, hurdles. The first of these is that it is blatantly obvious, from his own utterances and those of his officials, that Putin has no real interest in achieving it. His initial aim for his 2022 invasion remains extant; the subjugation of Ukraine, the removal of its President and administration and its replacement by a puppet government loyal to Moscow, and the re-absorption of the country into Greater Russia. He has given no sign of changing that.

Next, Trump has suggested that a peace deal might involve the concession of some territory, by both sides apparently but clearly mainly by Kyiv. For Zelensky this is a non-starter, and for his part he seeks the total restoration of Ukrainian occupied territory to Kyiv’s jurisdiction, including Crimea which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. I cannot see any circumstances under which Putin would be persuaded to give back Crimea or any of the other land he has captured willingly.

Then there is the opposition of the USA’s NATO allies to any conciliatory deal with Russia, and certainly to anything agreed over over the heads of the Ukrainians. European leaders have been more or less unanimous that any peace deal has to involve Ukraine’s leadership, and Trump now seems – somewhat reluctantly perhaps – to agree. In my considered opinion it is unfathomable that any peace negotiations can take place without Ukraine’s and other European states’ participation.

So I think that Trump has embarked on a forlorn mission, and in doing so has wittingly or unwittingly strengthened Putin’s arm by recognising his as an equal in negotiations. He is clearly not. The Russian leader will be well aware of this, and the only question is when Trump will fully realise he is being played for a fool and what his reaction will be. More sanctions no doubt, but in the context those will hardly be the answer to the maiden’s prayer.

The best that can be hoped for, I think, is some sort of ceasefire agreement. Without a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire there can be no peace talks. But a ceasefire throws up its own questions; how will it be verified and monitored? Will it require third party military forces in place to guarantee it? Which countries are willing and able to put troops on the ground, and will both Ukraine and Russia find their presence acceptable? And what happens if the peacekeeping forces come under attack?

I don’t think, therefore, that the Alaska meeting will decide very much at all, if anything. It may be a preliminary to further talks, perhaps involving Zelensky directly, but I’m not optimistic. Even Trump is now expressing doubts about a positive outcome.

And there is always the fear that, if a ceasefire is agreed, it will just allow breathing space for both sides to reorganise and re-arm.  Then we must ask where and when will the war start again, and what will we do about it then?

 

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

 

 

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

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