War Clouds Over Iran — And Britain Risks Sitting on the Wrong Side of History

           

 

As America Prepares to Strike, Starmer Says No — and the Special Relationship Wobbles

The countdown may already have begun. As the United States masses overwhelming military force around Iran, President Trump has openly warned that if talks stall, action could follow within days. Aircraft carriers are in position, strike aircraft are forward-deployed, and airborne command systems are on the move. Against this backdrop, Britain has chosen a moment of maximum tension to deny US forces access to key UK-linked bases — a decision that risks sidelining the UK, straining the alliance with Washington, and placing Britain firmly on the wrong side of events that may soon reshape the Middle East.

The world watches on as the US military gathers in the Middle East, the prequel to a likely attack on Iran. President Trump has stated that, if the current round of US/Iranian talks on curbing Iran’s nuclear programme, its ballistic missile development, and its support to various militias in the region stall, then “something might happen in the next ten days”.

He said that yesterday, 19 February. My interpretation is that this means either this weekend or next.

The USA has built up a mighty task force in anticipation of action against Iran. The US carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its Strike Group have been hovering in the Gulf off the coast of Oman for some time now, well within range of Iran.

The US carrier USS Gerald R Ford and its escorting vessels has been ordered to the Mediterranean where it will likely patrol in international waters off the coast of Israel. It is expected to arrive in the next few days.

In the air F-22 Raptor jets have been moved to bases in the Middle East, and there has been a constant stream of tanker and transport aircraft moving to the region. And the most telling indicator has been the arrival of US AWACS aircraft, essential for command and control of air operations, passing through the UK presumably in transit for the Middle East.

So, why at this delicate moment has Starmer refused to let US forces use either RAF Fairford, the US bomber base in Gloucestershire which serves as the preferred bomber forward operating location in Europe for USAF Global Strike Command, and the base on the UK (still) territory of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean which is well within striking distance of Iran?

Only Starmer knows the answer. It appears that his instincts as an international lawyer have taken precedence over his clear duty as Prime Minister. In denying the US access he is essentially supporting Iran, which is the fount of all evil in the Middle East and the declared enemy of the USA and Israel plus their allies, which clearly includes the UK. It seems to be both intellectually and politically incoherent.

The response to Starmer’s snub from Donald Trump has been swift. He has yet again changed his position on the Prime Minister’s proposed deal to hand the Chagos Islands, which includes the joint US/UK military base on Diego Garcia, from one of support to one of opposition to the deal.

Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham has been forthright in his view: “The bottom line is the largest state sponsor of terrorism on the planet is the weakest it’s been because the people of Iran have risen up by the millions to end their oppression and the United States and Israel have delivered crushing blows to the regime’s military infrastructure.”
To my friends in Britain, sitting this one out puts you on the wrong side of history and is yet another example of how much our alliances throughout Europe have degraded.“

My own former comrades-in-arms have been equally scathing. One calls Starmer’s decision “moronic”, and another says “he’s a tw*t of almost Blair-esque proportions”. One senior retired officer opines “I doubt that Trump will take any notice!”

And British barrister Colin Wynter KC has echoed that last remark, saying on X/Twitter: “What happens if Trump decides to issue an order for US aircraft to take off for Iran from RAF Fairford? What would we do? What could we do? Arrest and detain? Would we do it? Who would do it? When and how? Or would we express our “deep concern”, take it on the chin and move on?”

My personal view is that Starmer’s move is monumentally stupid and will add fuel to the fire in the continuing degradation of US/UK relations. It may not quite be a case of “special relationship no more”, not yet anyway, but it’s certainly heading that way.

And I think the critics are right. Starmer has made a decision he cannot enforce, and Trump may well just ignore him. Many hundreds of US military flights transit British military bases every year, and there’s no way of knowing which may be directly involved in any imminent attack on Iran and which are merely routine traffic.

Our Prime Minister would do well to change his mind on this one. U-turn number 17?

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

 

 

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