Trump’s long-telegraphed showdown begins with joint US-Israeli attack on Tehran

It had been quite clear that the USA was actively considering more strikes against Iran in the near future as negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile programmes, and support of militant groups in the region dragged on with no end in sight.

With the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its Strike Group hovering off the coast of Oman for some time now, well within range of Iran, and the move of the US carrier USS Gerald R Ford and its escorting vessels to the Mediterranean off the coast of Israel, you didn’t need the brains of an Archbishop to work out what was likely to happen.

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Add that in the air the almost constant stream of US military aircraft from the USA to bases in the Middle East and it formed a perfect recipe for some sort of action.

And now it has come to pass, a repeat of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran during the “Twelve Day War” in June last year when the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran responded by firing missiles at a US base in Qatar. But this time it will undoubtedly be much fiercer and last much longer.

Despite the Iranian regime’s rhetoric there is little it can do to prevent such attacks as its military is much weakened and its equipment mainly obsolete. It’s retaliation using its depleted stock of ballistic missiles is unlikely to trouble the USA and Israel overmuch.

The one major card that Tehran can play is to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz where roughly a quarter of the world’s oil and gas passes annually. The US has acknowledged this risk by pounding Iranian naval bases along its shore. If the Iranians seek to mine the Strait this might be their most dangerous card to play.

If it managed to do so then the US and its allies would be forced to respond, despite the possibility of starting a much larger regional conflict. This might necessitate the insertion of ground troops in the area, something Trump will be keen to avoid.

We’ll have to wait and see but make no mistake: Trump has declared war on Iran and there’s no knowing how long the conflict might last or what will be its ultimate result.