Ceasefire Mirage: Gaza Hostage Swap Raises Eyebrows Amidst Political Chess Game

The eyes of the world have been on the temporary ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of hostages and prisoners between Hamas and Israel. At the time of writing, the cessation of hostilities has lasted seven days and some 102 Israelis and 210 Palestinians have been released, with around 220 trucks of humanitarian aid now entering the Gaza Strip daily.

Every sane observer will be heartened by the Israeli/Hamas exchanges so far and hope that there may be more to come if the ceasefire can be further extended. But we have to be careful to fully understand what is going on here.

Under pressure from its main ally the USA and other international governments, the Israeli government and military has compromised its successful operation in Gaza. When military action was halted it was well on its way to crushing Hamas. It has temporarily relented to enable the release of its citizens held by the terrorists, which is of immense importance to the Israeli public; its politicians have reacted accordingly, its military leaders will have had to acquiesce.

Hamas, on the other hand, is using the ceasefire and the protracted exchange to try to escape from the whirlwind they sowed on 7 October. I suspect that its leadership did not expect the attacks to be so successful, nor that Hamas terrorists would be followed by other groups and individuals who have vented their anger on Israeli civilians. But they know that, in the final analysis, there will be no escape for them. The die is cast, and it was cast by them.

Both sides are trying to manipulate the exchanges to their advantage. To date, only ‘lower value’ (in political terms, not human terms) assets have been released; women and children mainly by Hamas, and mostly stone-throwing children and other assorted ne’er-do-wells by Israel.

‘Higher value’ individuals, like convicted Hamas terrorists and Israeli military personnel alike, are probably being retained until the later stages when the stakes will be higher. Hamas is also trying to leverage the arrangements to its advantage by splitting families, for example releasing children but not their mothers. This is cruelty writ large and needs to be seen as such.

The picture is further complicated by the fact that Hamas does not itself hold all the Israeli hostages. Some are held by other factions and Hamas will not necessarily know by whom or where they are located. Nor do the Israelis know exactly how many of the hostages are in fact still alive. Hope springs eternal, of course, but there is every chance they are being strung along by Hamas.

It is also sadly likely that Hamas will not be quick to release hostages who suffered more violent assault during and after the attacks for fear of the stories they might tell and the injuries they might bear. Such evidence  would only inflame emotions even further and strengthen Israel’s resolve.

At some point the cost/benefit analysis, which both sides will be considering and which is currently in the positive, will inevitably turn negative, and sadly not all hostages may have been released or rescued when that comes to pass. There is no knowing when this might happen, but as Hamas expends its political capital, as it were, that time must be getting closer.

Israel is then likely to resume its military operation to eliminate Hamas, and will continue with it until the terrorists and their leadership are all eradicated or the weight of world opinion forces them to stop. Its future actions will not be unrestricted, however. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the crisis.

In his statement afterwards Blinken “reaffirmed the US’s support for ‘Israel’s right to protect itself from terrorist violence’ while complying with international humanitarian law”. But he also “stressed the imperative of accounting for humanitarian and civilian protection needs in southern Gaza before any military operations there.” Israel has not been given carte blanche.

Whatever transpires, Israel is in it for the long haul. The existence of Hamas can no longer be tolerated. Those familiar with the reaction to the terrorists attacks against Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics will know that it took Mossad 20 years to track down and eliminate the perpetrators.

Expect the same again.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

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