The world had been waiting with bated breath to see how, when, and where the US would respond to the attack that killed three of its troops at Tower 22 in north eastern Jordan last month, and now we know.
US forces have now bombed 85 targets at seven sites in Iraq and Syria from where Iran-backed militias have been operating against them, using a total of 125 precision guided munitions. Some of them were delivered by B-1 bombers that had flown non-stop from the USA.
To recap, US forces in Tower 22 had been hit in their living quarters by an Iran-supplied drone in the middle of the night when most were asleep. The attack was blamed on the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group comprising multiple militant organisations.
Interestingly, it appears that the attack drone followed in the shadow of an incoming US drone being recovered from a , for which some if not all of the US defences were suspended until its safe arrival. To accomplish this suggests either an unexpected level of sophistication on behalf of the militants or just pure luck, good or bad depending on your perspective.
Be that as it may, there was never any doubt that retaliation would follow and the intention was widely telegraphed via official channels. Some observers were puzzled that the US response took some days to deliver, commenting that it should better have happened immediately.
However, it would appear that the USA, and perhaps President Biden himself, wished to avoid too much escalation and collateral damage and delayed deliberately to allow at least some of the militants to disperse. It is notable that although there is no doubt who supplied the militants with their weaponry, Iran itself was not directly targeted.
So what happens next? Is this yet another sign that the conflict in Gaza and the Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea are expanding into a wider, possibly global, conflict?
Well no, not yet anyway. We are now seeing a gradual increase in tit-for-tat attacks between what might be described as the Iran bloc and the USA and its allies. But neither side wants this to develop into full scale warfare, because the USA has already got more than enough on its plate and because Iran knows it would lose badly.
Iran will want the pot to continue simmering but not for it to boil over, so we may see some relative backing down and restraint over the coming weeks.
That is, of course, unless something else occurs to bring matters to a head. Neither side would wish it, but as Burns so aptly put it, “the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley”.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now
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