Starmer Could Renege On Defence Spending Pledges

           

 

When Labour came to power in Westminster in July 2024, winning over 400 seats in the House of Commons with a crushing majority, the dire state of Britain’s armed forces was well known.

Unloved and underfunded by previous administrations of both political hues, the Royal Navy, Army, and Royal Air Force faced multiple crises; too few personnel to crew ships, man battalions, and fly aircraft, and too few operational platforms to make Britain a credible military power on the world stage.

It was, and still is, a depressing prospect, and one on which the Labour party clearly needed to do something, and quickly.

To add to Britain’s woes, it also became all too apparent that the newly-returned Trump administration in the White House was seeking to reduce its European commitment as it looked to focus on domestic matters and the Indo-Pacific in its foreign affairs.

For the US’ NATO allies in Europe this has been a massive wake-up call, and states across the Continent which had hitherto been happy to shelter under the American military umbrella have been scrambling to re-arm and revamp their military forces. Some, like Poland and arguably Germany, have proved to be more successful in this compared to others (Spain, we’re looking at you).

Against this background our new Prime Minister pledged to increase UK defence spending from a paltry 2.2% of GDP – still in excess of the NATO baseline of 2% mind – to 2.5% by 2027 and to 3% “in the next parliament”, the latter promise so vague and weasel-worded that it’s not worth the paper it’s written on.

And finally, following yet more agitation and threats from the Trump cabal in Washington, Starmer fell in line with other European NATO allies to committing the UK to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, plus a cosmetic fudge factor additional 1.5% on “defence related infrastructure” – which can mean virtually anything you want it to – to reach a symbolic 5%.

I, and many other much more experienced and senior military observers than me, said both at the time and since that it would be too little and too late. Europe faces a clear and present danger in the form of a revanchist Russia and time is not on our side.

But now we learn that Starmer and company may be reviewing its defence spending pledges in the light of other pressing domestic priorities, in particular welfare and health budgets which take up a disproportionate part of government spending.

I would just point out once again to the PM that our navy has ships and submarines tied up in dock for want of crews and maintenance, too few pilots to fly RAF ‘planes (no thanks to its late biased and illegal recruiting practices), and an army which cannot field one armoured brigade without major contortions let along the complete division it has – laughably – pledged to NATO.

And as for the state of British defence procurement I have only one word: Ajax. Enough said.

If you accept that the first duty on any government is the protection of the state and citizens then I would suggest the Labour party is playing with fire. If push came to shove I don’t think we’re capable of doing so at the moment, not without an immediate and significant uptick in funding for defence, both forces and industrial base.

There was nothing in the Budget to bring any relief to this grim picture. The government continues to plough on in following the recommendations of a Strategic Defence Review which was out of date before the ink was dry.

I find myself increasingly in agreement with my friend Colonel Tim Collins, who in a recent joint podcast said that he thought only a comprehensive military defeat of catastrophic proportions would bring British politicians to their senses and treat defence as the priority it should be.

I hope he is wrong but harbour serious doubts. As Churchill was wont to say, we need action this day!

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

 

 

Lt Col Stuart Crawford’s latest book Tank Commander (Hardback) is available now

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